by clicking the arrows at the side of the page, or by using the toolbar.
by clicking anywhere on the page.
by dragging the page around when zoomed in.
by clicking anywhere on the page when zoomed in.
web sites or send emails by clicking on hyperlinks.
Email this page to a friend
Search this issue
Index - jump to page or section
Archive - view past issues
Panpa Bulletin : July 2007
34 PANPA Bulletin July 2007 When we talk about the future of our industry we tend to concen- trate on developments of the media and communication technology. But social developments will influence the media markets as well as technical developments. Who is going to use all the mobile devices and micro computer based communication technologies if our society is ageing more and more? Will masses of old media consumers prefer reading the news- paper on a mobile reading device? Ifra is collecting data from the technical, the social and the media market side of the business in a major research project called Where NEWS? The aim is to develop pos- sible scenarios regarding expected changes in media consumption. Stephanie Wahl, Adrian Ottnad and Martin Schulte from the Institute for Economy and Society IWG (Institut für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft) are the authors of this Ifra report. In the next 10 to 15 years, people in Northern America and Europe will look dif- ferent in the truest sense of the word. They will become older. A growing number of them will have migrated. More often they will live in cities and despite their increas- ing average age, they will be more mobile than today. They will be living alone or in couples. Fewer and fewer will be living in a traditional father-mother-child family. In most households, disposable income will rise only slightly or even stagnate. For many, consumer opportunities will be limited due to increasing obligations to save for the future. Although more people will be technically better trained in the future, not all, however, will be able to keep up with the growing qualification demands. Working hours will fall. At the same time, a growing proportion of the population will have free use of its time, since it is excluded from working life. It will spend a major part of this time on media consumption. Furthermore, the populations of Northern America and Europe will become even more heterogeneous. Progressive ageing Population in Northern America will continue to grow until 2020; in Europe, by contrast, it will stagnate or shrink. More serious than the quantitative changes, how- ever, are the changes in the populations' age structure. Number and proportion of over 49-year-olds are rising considerably on both continents. On the other hand, in Northern America the number of consumer-oriented 15 to 49-year-olds will probably increase only slightly, while in Europe it could fall by almost 48 million. Continuing migration Considerably more people will continue to migrate to Northern America and Europe than emigrate from them. According to the projections of the UN, until 2020 net migration to Northern America will amount to around 20 and to Europe to around 11 million. Migrants from regions further away will come in even greater numbers than in the past. The ethnic and cultural diversity will thus increase. Further urbanisation According to the UN's projections, the urban population in Northern America will grow by around 50 and in Europe by just under 12 million until 2020. In Northern America, 85 percent of inhabitants will then live in towns and cities, in Europe, 75 per cent. Respective rising and stagnating geo- graphic mobility In 2020 Europeans will be more mobile than today, while the mobility of Northern Americans will probably remain at its cur- rent high level. The mobility differences be- tween the two continents will thus decrease. Continuing household fragmentation and declining signi cance of traditional amilies The trend towards household fragmen- ation and individual ways of life is con- inuing in Northern America and Europe. Consequently, the number of households will continue to rise. At the same time the average household size is getting smaller. Single and two-person households will dominate even more. Furthermore, particu- arly in Europe, the proportion of house- holds in which children live is falling. Of the children, even more than today will not be growing up in father-mother-child families. Growing income spread Although the net income of private households in Western industrial countries will probably rise more slowly in the future han up to now, Americans and Europeans will still have the world's highest income even in 2020. However, the income discrep- ancy in Northern America and Europe will become bigger. The number of households with average income will decline, while the number of households with above-average, but above all with below-average dispos- able income will rise. The proportion of the population living below the relative poverty line will probably continue to grow. Increasing education and quali cation di erences The trend towards the higher qualifica- tion of younger in relation to older age groups will gradually come to a standstill in the next five to ten years. Additionally, a more pronounced spread in the level of education and qualification can be expected. Both, the proportion of the population with low scholastic skills and low qualifications as well as the proportion of population with high scholastic skills and high qualification, will probably gain ground to the detriment of middle education and qualification levels. Rising proportion of employed with shorter individual working hours In Europe, more people from the 15-70 age group will be pursuing gainful employment than today. Many of them, however, will only be practising part-time employment. Manfred Werfel, Research Director, Deputy CEO, Ifra. Changing society -- changing media usage pressing matters C afa ta ti C w aSd la h cg G h w th
August September 2007